As NHL playoffs enter Round 2, who will win the Stanley Cup and why?

We’re down to eight teams left playing for the Stanley Cup, and as of Wednesday morning, three of four Round 2 series are already underway.

Over the past few days, I’ve noticed that the Stanley Cup probabilities have been shifting dramatically, with each big win, key injury and poor performance from a top player having a significant impact.

Some of that is simply because the field is so closely bunched up talent-wise, which means little things can create some newfound separation between teams. But there are other factors that go into picking favorites that I think are worth looking at a little more in-depth.

Here’s my attempt to break down where all eight teams sit, going from those with the lowest odds to the highest, after Tuesday’s games in Washington and Las Vegas.

8. Washington Capitals 

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 2%
MoneyPuck: 4.8%
BetMGM: 4.6%

Analysis: The Capitals already had some of the lowest Cup odds before Game 1’s overtime loss against the Hurricanes. And then, because the game’s balance of play was so lopsided, with Carolina outshooting them 33-14, the models and oddsmakers hammered their chances even more.

While the Capitals have home-ice advantage, finished 12 points ahead of Carolina in the standings and might look like the favorites as a result, they haven’t been regarded as such all postseason. That’s happening for a few reasons.

Washington won the East with 111 points this season and then pushed past the upstart Canadiens in five games in Round 1. But their regular-season record was built heavily on having the NHL’s highest shooting percentage and superlative goaltending from Logan Thompson, which is where some of the skepticism creeps in.

Defenseman Martin Fehérváry suffering a knee injury right before the playoffs has also hurt Washington’s depth on the blue line, and the Rasmus Sandin-Matt Roy pairing had a really difficult night in Game 1.

The Capitals do seem to have been underrated all season, however, especially offensively, given how they produced all year. But Washington’s path to winning it all goes through Carolina, then a strong Atlantic opponent in Round 3 and a West juggernaut in the Final, and that’s partly how they end up eighth out of eight remaining teams.

Especially now that they’re down 1-0.

7. Vegas Golden Knights

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 6%
MoneyPuck: 9.2%
BetMGM: 8%

Analysis: Vegas certainly looked human against the Wild in Round 1. And blowing Game 1, at home, against the Oilers after opening the game with a 2-0 lead certainly isn’t a great look.

Adin Hill now has the second-weakest numbers of any regular No. 1 goalie still playing, ahead of only Connor Hellebuyck, which is a significant problem. Not having leading goal scorer Pavel Dorofeyev has hurt, as does the fact Alex Pietrangelo, 35, has slowed down this season and missed Game 1 with an illness.

This series obviously remains in reach, as it was a coin-flip coming in, but the Golden Knights are looking far more vulnerable right now than they did at the beginning of the postseason. They need to test Calvin Pickard far more than the 17 shots they put his way in Game 1 in order to beat this Edmonton team.

6. Florida Panthers

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 11%
MoneyPuck: 11.4%
BetMGM: 13.6%

Analysis: It feels odd to have the defending champs this low, but going down 1-0 and not having home-ice advantage in Round 2 hurts their chances, to the point some sites have them with only a 37 percent shot of winning the series right now.

That Matthew Tkachuk isn’t looking like himself doesn’t help and could be a big factor if the Leafs’ Core Four stars find a way to deliver like they did in Monday’s wild 5-4 win.

It’s way too early to get down on a team as deep and experienced as the Panthers, however. All it will take is another strong outing to swing these probabilities back in their favor, given their history and how easily they dispatched the Lightning in Round 1.

5. Winnipeg Jets

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 14%
MoneyPuck: 13.8%
BetMGM: 8.4%

Analysis: The Presidents’ Trophy winners didn’t exactly win over doubters with their dramatic, come-from-behind Game 7 win in Round 1.

A huge part of that is obviously the play of Hellebuyck, who allowed a league-worst 10 goals below expected against St. Louis. But injuries to No. 1 center Mark Scheifele and No. 1 defenseman Josh Morrissey also loom large.

As does the fact they’re facing a Stars team that looks very impressive right now and is on the verge of getting fully healthy, with the potential returns of Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson.

If Winnipeg can get healthy and Hellebuyck builds on that Game 7 win and turns things around, the Jets will rise quickly up these rankings. If they don’t get those two things, they might be in big trouble here.

It’s interesting to note that the Jets are the team with the widest gap between the statistical models and the betting odds, for whatever that’s worth.

4. Dallas Stars

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 14%
MoneyPuck: 12.3%
BetMGM: 16%

Analysis: The Stars ranking here, despite being one of only two teams that hasn’t played in Round 2, shows just how tough their first-round matchup was with the equally talented Avalanche.

Now that they’ve slipped past that hurdle, and with Heiskanen and Robertson projected to return at some point, there’s heavy money in the markets on Dallas. When I surveyed a few executives around the league heading into Round 2, the majority were picking the Stars, which matches the results of our staff predictions earlier this week.

Dallas would likely be No. 1 on this list if it had a Game 1 win under its belt like the three teams below. And playing in the West, with a date with the Presidents’ Trophy and Vezina Trophy winners in Round 2, doesn’t help either. Even if they might be the best team remaining, talent-wise, when everyone is healthy.

Mikko Rantanen and Tyler Seguin are just two of Dallas’ many stars in a deep roster. (Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images)

3. Edmonton Oilers

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 15%
MoneyPuck: 11.9%
BetMGM: 17.6%

Analysis: Before Game 1’s impressive 4-2 win over the Golden Knights, the oddsmakers were really down on Edmonton due to a slow start in the first round.

Stuart Skinner flaming out in goal was one factor, as Pickard is the definition of a journeyman given he’s started just 70 NHL games and posted an .891 save percentage over the last eight years.

Top defensive defenseman Mattias Ekholm being ruled out for the series hurt, too, as the Oilers are relying on a relatively unheralded group of bottom-four D: Brett Kulak, Jake Walman, John Klingberg and Ty Emberson. Whether or not they and Pickard could hold up against a Vegas team with arguably the deepest offensive cast in the league was a fair question coming in.

But the great equalizer with this Oilers team is Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard. And three huge goals from other forwards — Corey Perry, Zach Hyman and Connor Brown — was a great sign in keying a comeback from down 2-0 early in Game 1. It was their fifth consecutive come-from-behind win, the first time that’s ever happened in the NHL playoffs.

The Oilers’ path forward has an impact on their chances, holding them back from the top two spots. The perceived strength of Edmonton’s potential Round 3 opponents — especially with the Stars projected to get healthy very shortly — hurts their probabilities even if they beat the Golden Knights.

But Tuesday’s win was a big first step in proving any doubters wrong.

2. Toronto Maple Leafs 

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 16%
MoneyPuck: 17.3%
BetMGM: 12.6%

Analysis: The Leafs with the second-best Cup odds on May 7?

I know, kids. I’m scared, too.

An impressive Game 1 win over the defending champion Panthers on Monday gave the Leafs a nice probabilities boost this week. What doesn’t appear to have greatly affected their Cup odds — yet — is goaltender Anthony Stolarz’s health, which is up in the air after he was taken to hospital following a blow to the head midway through Monday’s game.

Some of that is likely due to the uncertainty over how long he’s actually going to be out, if at all. But there is also confidence in Joseph Woll, who has played well in the postseason in the past.

The other thing to factor in is that Florida is a bit beat up right now. Tkachuk hasn’t been playing at full speed for months and averaged under 14 minutes a game in the first round. Add in that many players on this roster are in their third consecutive postseason of trying to go all four rounds, and it’s possible fatigue will be a factor as this series goes on.

That said, all it will take is the Panthers putting up a big win in Game 2 to even out these odds. But it’s worth mentioning again that the East is an easier path, especially if Florida somehow gets knocked out here early on.

1. Carolina Hurricanes

Stanley Cup probabilities 
The Athletic: 21%
MoneyPuck: 19.2%
BetMGM: 19.2%

Analysis: It’s not just the statistical models that favor the analytically inclined Hurricanes right now, as the oddsmakers are getting higher and higher on their chances, too.

Part of that is they are in the NHL’s weakest division and facing the consensus easiest opponent in Round 2. Their territorial dominance in Game 1 against Washington only reinforced the mismatch on that side of the game.

There are some legitimate questions about Carolina’s Cup chances, led by their goaltending — can Frederik Andersen really stay healthy? And the road will get a lot tougher if they get past the Capitals here.

The fact they’re such a good bet to move on, however, gives them a nice boost right now, and that they were a dominant defensive team all year doesn’t hurt either. Even if they didn’t answer their critics who say they won’t be able to score enough on Tuesday night.

(Top photo: Geoff Burke / Imagn Images)